Dual-qualifiers in the
Kentucky Derby
In 1984, Leon Rasmussen,
the Daily Racing Form’s
Bloodlines columnist at the
time, devised a simple but
generally accurate formula
for the time for
handicapping the Kentucky
Derby (G1): The Derby winner
had to be a top two-year-old
and have a stamina-laden
pedigree to win the race.
Specifically, his dual
dosage theory required a
horse to be weighted within
the top ten pounds of the
Experimental Free Handicap
highweight and have a dosage
index of 4.00 or lower. Or,
the horse had to be a
champion in his native
country and have the proper
dosage. This latter
requirement neatly accounted
for the 1983 Derby triumph
of Sunny’s Halo, who was
weighted at 108 pounds on
the Experimental but was
champion juvenile male in
Canada.
From 1972 through 1990,
every winner of the Derby
was a dual qualifier. In
1991, however, that skein
was broken by Strike the
Gold, who was not weighted
on the Experimental Free
Handicap and had a dosage
greater than 4.00 (his
dosage was later recast,
however, after Alydar was
quickly named a classic
chef-de-race, to make him
dosage compliant).
With Strike the Gold now
compliant, according to
Rasmussen, no Derby winner
since 1929 had a dosage
index above 4.00 or a center
of distribution above 1.25.
The dual dosage theory
held up through most of the
1990s. The last seven
runnings of the Derby,
however, shattered the
concept.
The 1998 Derby was won by
Real Quiet, who was a
non-qualifier, with a dosage
index (DI) of 5.29 and an
Experimental weight of 117
pounds, 11 pounds less than
1997 Horse of the Year and
Experimental highweight
Favorite Trick.
The next year, reformed
claimer Charismatic won the
Kentucky Derby without an
Experimental weight and
possessing a DI of 5.22.
In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus
won the Derby without an
Experimental weight because
he raced just once at two,
and his DI of 3.67 was just
under the 4.00 requirement.
In 2001, Monarchos
brought a DI of 1.40 into
the Derby, did not have an
Experimental weight because
he had made just two starts
at two.
In 2002, War Emblem won
the Derby without being
weighted on the
Experimental, having been
off the board in his only
stakes attempt at two,
though he did have a DI of
3.40.
In 2003, Funny Cide,
carried a DI of 1.53 but was
not weighted on the
Experimental because he did
not meet the qualifications.
The gelding was unbeaten in
three races as a
two-year-old, but two of his
victories came in restricted
state-bred stakes—thus not
eligible for consideration
to be weighted on the
Experimental.
In 2004, Smarty Jones,
like Funny Cide, qualified
on dosage, with a DI of
3.40, and he was similarly
undefeated as a
two-year-old. But with
victories only in a maiden
special weight event and a
state-bred restricted
stakes, he also was not
weighted on the
Experimental.
Qualifiers in 2005
